Posted Feb 26 2016
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LastWord Calls The Oscars 2016 - Chris Rock - It's Done Mate! Don't Bother Showing Up

So welcome to the most divisive year – EVER. OK, for a while at least. While there are a couple of locks here – Stallone, we knew you had it in you! Leo – Netflix and chill between now and Sunday – everything else is much more up for grabs that usual. Many Oscar observers are still seeing it as a three horse race for the big one (Spotlight, Revenant, Big Short) but we’re taking The Revenant’s horse out of that one (after all, said horse went off the edge of  a cliff and ended up dead in a tree – you gotta dig the symbolism.) But we’re still torn on the other two “issue” movies. We know where we’re gong – just not sure everyone else is as smart as we are! (Gulp! Shame to follow!)

We also predict a split between Film and Director. We also see a lot of the tech awards – which would normally back up the Best Picture, going their own way. In others words we here at LastWord are calling this…all over the shop. Although we’re pretty sure the host is going to bring up the issue of race. (Phew, we got that one at least!)

The votes are in, the accountants are…um…accounting and in time-honoured tradition, we’re leaving some of the big ones to the end. So once again we’ll start as we think they will – and, indeed as we mean to go on, with –

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Now a couple of weeks back when we were doing our whole crystal ball thing with the BAFTAs, we went Alicia for this, only to be stumped by the hometown fave that is Kate Winslett. Now in that race Ms Vikander was up for Ex Machina (by far a superior film to the one she is nominated for here.) But Danish Girl is seen as the bigger movie, and she is being recognised as just about the only worthwhile thing in it. And she has stormed this year. So whilst Kate is in with a chance (and while our emotional loyalty is with Boyles’ remarkable Jobs) – this is the moment Alicia Vikander wins her first Oscar. (There will be more.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Please let him scream “Adrian. ADRIAN!!!” when he wins. (See above.) He fucking deserves to.

BEST ANIMATED FILM – Oh yeah, and speaking of locks. Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa is remarkable, brilliant, wonderful, all of the above – but it’s no Inside Out. Had they had the sense to nominate this for Best Picture, this whole three-way thing could’ve been avoided. Oh, the fools! Expand the trophy case, Pixar.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Our heart is with Roger Deakins (Sicario.) But our other heart is with Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant.) Our colon is with Edward Lachman but the least said about that… Can the multi-nominated Roger “Always-The-Bridesmaid” Deakins take down the mighty Emmanuel “I Could Just Win This Every Year” Lubezki? And if he does, will it just be a sympathy fuck? We’re happy either way, though there is a certain charm to be had in seeing Chivo take it three years in a row. And whilst we don’t think The Revenant is going all the way, in this category, it is.

BEST EDITING – Now here’s where it gets interesting. Editing often goes hand in hand with Picture – but we don’t think that’s the case this year. Spotlight is so understated and The Big Short the opposite, and The Revenant tries to hide it editing (and does a damn fine job, much as Birdman did last year.) Plus, we feel the guilds have a lot of love for a film that realistically has no chance of getting the biggies, so this is where that love for Mad Max Fury Road starts to make itself felt.

And while we’re at it add –

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

to Max’s Mad haul.

And we’re not ruling out –

BEST SOUND EDITING

& BEST SOUND MIXING – although Star Wars has a shot here, because everyone loved Episode VII and there will be a need to give them something. Which leads us to –

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – Now, whilst the above Sound awards are a distinct possibility, we think this is where JJ and co find some love. And while we’re at it –

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – This is a tough one. There’s something beautiful about John Williams being on his 50th nomination for a re-interpretation of a score he did (and won for) nearly forty years ago. So don’t rule him out. But then again, they have finally woken up to the genius of Carter Burwell after all these years (for Carol) so that could happen. But really, who are we kidding? It will be a sentimental vote, but it will go to Morricone rather than Williams for his superbly unexpected, brooding score for The Hateful Eight. Not a bad thing.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – For all of you out there currently screaming “Dear God, please don’t let it be that piece of shit worst Bond theme ever!!!” – relax. Gaga has worked this – she’s having it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY – It’s been winning all season, all over the shop, so Amy takes this home. Deservedly. (Just don’t let her dad do the acceptance speech. Unlikely, we know.)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – It seems to be between Mustang and Son Of Saul. And whilst the former is undeniably moving, the latter is distinctly powerful and, as we know, if it’s foreign, it must be deep – Son Of Saul takes it.

So, given the fact we haven’t seen all the shorts, so we couldn’t possibly say – we find ourselves back at the biggies.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY/BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – We’ve conflated these two because on the night they’re not going to help in working out where the hell this thing is going. Spotlight claims Original, Big Short picks up Adapted…and we’re none the wiser. Talk about your edge of the seat stuff…

BEST ACTRESS – We’d like to think Saoirse Ronan was still in with a shot here. When we saw Brooklyn all those months ago we couldn’t imagine anyone pipping her to this particular post. And, despite all the love and admiration we have for Brie Larson and the ridiculously good Room in general, we still have a structural problem in that she’s off screen for most of the third act. But she has the momentum – and damn, but she’s good when she is on screen. And that film makes us cry just thinking about it. So, hello Brie Larson – Miss Oscar.

BEST ACTOR – Ob come on Leo – just fucking get it over with! (Better be a great speech, you’ve had years to practice. Don’t bang on about the environment too much. And try not to mention you should’ve won for Wolf Of Wall Street two years ago.)

BEST DIRECTOR – Now here’s where it gets really interesting. There’s a lot of respect out there for both Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay – but it’s reserved respect (and they’re not giving it to the man who made Step Brothers and The Other Guys – that’s not an Oscar arc.) So, as an outside choice, George Miller could surprise…but we think they’re gonna go obvious and reward the genius of Alejandro G. Inarritu – even if it is the second year in a row (which will grate with some voters.) Doesn’t mean he’s got it in the bag though…

BEST PICTURE – OK, so here we are, the big one – though not necessarily The Big Short. We know in most people’s eyes it’s down to three. Personally, we’re not going The Revenant – too brutal, half of them didn’t watch it because of that, and two years in a row? Too much. Chuck him director and split the vote. Which leaves us with the funny-but-serious one. Or the paedo one. We’re going paedo in this case (you know what we mean.) Spotlight has its moment in the spotlight, having only won one other award for screenplay.

So there you have it. Consider that The Last Word on the Oscars 2016. Chris Rock – you might as well not bother showing up. The rest of you – why watch? What else could possibly happen??

 

(Alternative scenario – Room wins Best Film, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Actress…)

If you’re still interested, come back Sunday night as LastWord live-blogs the Oscars and see just how right we were. (Or – and we have to entertain the possibility – not!)

Follow us on Twitter @lastwordonearth

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